Disinflation, deflation, and stagflation
Educational only. These are vocabulary distinctions for reading inflation debates. They are not forecasts of the next regime and not trading signals.
Site vs Telegram
Regime vocabulary stays here. CPI/PCE-day decoding belongs on Telegram: Macro Simplified on Telegram.
Diagram: three inflation-regime labels — teaching distinctions only.
Start from Inflation 101
If CPI, core, and PCE still feel fuzzy, read Inflation 101 first. This page assumes you know inflation means a rising broad price level—and adds three words media use constantly.
Disinflation
Disinflation means inflation is still positive, but the rate of increase is slowing. Prices may keep rising—just more slowly than before.
Example teaching sentence: “Inflation fell from 6% to 3% year-over-year” is disinflation if both numbers are still above zero. It is not the same as prices falling.
Deflation
Deflation means the broad price level is falling—negative inflation. Modern U.S. headlines use the word carefully because true broad deflation has been rare in recent decades, while individual categories (say, a gadget) can fall without the whole basket collapsing.
Deflation talk matters historically because falling prices can interact with debt burdens and demand—but this site does not date a deflation scenario. Link debt vocabulary: Debt, leverage, and cycles.
Stagflation
Stagflation is the uncomfortable mash-up label: stagnant or weak growth / soft labor alongside sticky high inflation. It echoes adverse supply-shock stories where policy trade-offs feel uglier than in a clean demand boom.
Use it as a map label when commentators describe that mix—not as a prediction that “stagflation starts Monday,” and not as a portfolio recipe (Diversification and macro regimes covers regime maps without product picks).
Quick contrast table
| Word | Prices broadly… | Growth/jobs vibe (typical story) |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation rising | Rising faster | Often hot demand—or supply stress |
| Disinflation | Still rising, but more slowly | Many soft-landing debates live here |
| Deflation | Falling | Rare headline case; distinct from “one item cheaper” |
| Stagflation | High/sticky inflation | Weak growth or soft labor alongside |
Next reads
- Inflation 101 — measures and calm print-reading
- Demand shocks vs supply shocks — where stagflation stories often begin
- Jobs and growth — the growth/labor half
- Real vs nominal — purchasing-power lens
- Glossary — disinflation, deflation, stagflation
Related reads
Telegram
CPI and PCE days: Join Macro Simplified.