Glossary
Educational only. Short definitions for learning. Not financial advice and not a signal to trade.
Jump: Fed · Inflation · Labor · Markets · Rates & FX · Housing & commodities · Sources · Fiscal & cycle · Expectations
Fed
Dual mandate
The Fed’s Congressionally assigned goals: maximum sustainable employment and stable prices. In practice, officials weigh both when setting the policy rate, discussing the balance sheet, and offering forward guidance. Tension between the two goals is normal when inflation is high while the labor market is still firm.
Learn more: The Fed toolkit · Jobs and growth
Fed funds rate
The interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans of reserves; the Fed sets a target range for this rate as its main policy tool. When people say “the Fed hiked” or “the Fed cut,” they usually mean this target range moved. It influences other borrowing costs without setting your mortgage or credit-card APR directly.
Learn more: The Fed toolkit · Interest rates and yields
FOMC
The Federal Open Market Committee—the group inside the Fed that votes on the policy-rate target and issues the post-meeting statement. Meeting weeks often include a press conference and, at times, updated economic projections. FOMC days are one of the three core event types beginners should learn first.
Learn more: Event playbook · The Fed toolkit
Forward guidance
How the Fed communicates the likely path of policy—not only today’s decision. Statements, press conferences, speeches, and projection materials all shape expectations. Markets can move on wording because investors update their guess of future rates and liquidity.
Learn more: The Fed toolkit · Priced in / expectations
QE (quantitative easing)
A balance-sheet policy where the central bank buys longer-term securities and creates bank reserves in the process. In plain language, it adds reserves into the financial plumbing, often when the policy rate is already very low or markets need support. It is not a simple guarantee that any particular risk asset will rise.
Learn more: The Fed toolkit · Risk assets 101
QT (quantitative tightening)
The reverse direction on the balance sheet: allowing holdings to mature without full replacement (or selling), so the balance sheet shrinks and reserves leave the system over time. QT is part of the “plumbing” story alongside the policy rate—not a day-trading signal by itself.
Learn more: The Fed toolkit
Inflation
CPI
The Consumer Price Index—a measure of prices for a basket of goods and services paid by urban consumers, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Headline CPI includes food and energy. Investors and households watch CPI because it is a familiar gauge of inflation in daily life and a major input to the policy debate.
Learn more: Inflation 101 · Event playbook
Core CPI
CPI excluding food and energy. The aim is to highlight underlying inflation without the most volatile categories. Core is a complement to headline, not a replacement; both answer useful but different questions about a given month’s print.
Learn more: Inflation 101
PCE
The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index—an inflation gauge tied to what households actually spend. The Fed has long preferred PCE when describing its inflation goal. Headline and core PCE versions exist, parallel to the CPI family.
Learn more: Inflation 101 · The Fed toolkit
Labor
NFP
Nonfarm payrolls—the monthly estimate of jobs added or lost outside the farming sector, released with the broader employment situation report. Markets also watch the unemployment rate, wages, and revisions. NFP is a flagship event for the jobs half of the dual mandate.
Learn more: Jobs and growth · Event playbook
GDP
Gross domestic product—the broadest common scoreboard for the value of goods and services produced in an economy over a period. GDP growth summaries show whether activity expanded or contracted overall, but monthly jobs and inflation prints often drive day-to-day macro conversation more than the quarterly GDP release.
Learn more: Jobs and growth · Business cycle
Soft landing
A scenario label: inflation cools toward the central bank’s comfort zone while growth slows only modestly and the labor market softens without a deep downturn. It is a way to organize debate—not a forecast this glossary or site makes, and not a dated recession call.
Learn more: Jobs and growth · Business cycle
Markets
Liquidity
In macro slang, how easily money and credit flow through the financial system—reserves, market functioning, and willingness to lend or take risk—not only how fast you can sell an asset. QE/QT and private credit conditions both show up in liquidity conversations that affect risk mood.
Learn more: Risk assets 101 · The Fed toolkit
Risk-off
A mood label for when investors prefer safety over risk assets—often during uncertainty spikes, tighter financial conditions, or growth scares. The opposite informal idea is a “risk-on” appetite. These labels describe behavior in headlines; they are not instructions to buy or sell.
Learn more: Risk assets 101
Rates & FX
Yield
The return implied by a bond’s price and cash flows, usually quoted as an annual percentage. In everyday headline language: when bond prices rise, yields fall; when bond prices fall, yields rise. Market yields are set in trading—not typed in by the Fed as the policy rate.
Learn more: Interest rates and yields · The Fed toolkit
Yield curve
A snapshot of yields across maturities—from short-term bills to longer-term notes and bonds. Short yields sit closer to the policy-rate story; longer yields fold in growth, inflation, and policy-path guesses. Curve shape is vocabulary for what markets are pricing—not a recession-date forecast on this site.
Learn more: Interest rates and yields · Business cycle
DXY
A widely quoted U.S. Dollar Index—newspaper shorthand for the dollar’s value against a basket of major currencies. Rising DXY usually tracks a “stronger dollar” story in U.S. media; falling DXY tracks a “weaker dollar” story. It is a teaching and headline gauge here, not a pitch to trade FX.
Learn more: US dollar and FX
Duration
A teaching shortcut for how sensitive a bond’s price is to a change in yields. Longer-maturity bonds usually have higher duration and tend to wiggle more when yields move; shorter bonds usually wiggle less. Duration describes interest-rate sensitivity—it is not a recommendation to buy or sell any bond.
Learn more: Bonds for beginners · Interest rates and yields
Real yield
Roughly, a bond yield after subtracting an inflation measure or inflation expectation—so learners can compare a nominal yield with the inflation backdrop. Real-yield talk shows up in debates about bonds versus cash or risk assets. This glossary defines the phrase; it does not publish “real yields say buy X” calls.
Learn more: Bonds for beginners · Inflation 101
Financial conditions
Broadcaster shorthand for how easy or expensive it feels for households, firms, and markets to get money and take risk—market yields, credit spreads, the dollar, equity volatility, and lending appetite—not only the Fed’s policy rate. “Tighter” leans toward dearer/scarcer money and more caution; “easier” leans the other way. Educational context only.
Learn more: Financial conditions · The Fed toolkit · Risk assets 101
TIPS
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities—U.S. government bonds whose principal adjusts with a consumer-price index so that, in design, they offer inflation-linked protection. Beginners meet “TIPS yields” or breakeven inflation talk in market commentary. This site treats TIPS as vocabulary for inflation-and-rates conversation, not a product recommendation.
Learn more: Bonds for beginners · Inflation 101 · Interest rates and yields
Housing & commodities
Mortgage rate
The interest rate a lender quotes on a home loan. It is influenced by market yields and lender margins—not set equal to the Fed’s overnight policy rate. Policy moves and guidance transmit into mortgage quotes through the bond market and expectations, with lags and plenty of noise.
Learn more: Housing, mortgages, and rates · Interest rates and yields · Financial conditions
Hard assets
Loose headline slang for physical or commodity-linked claims—gold, oil, and sometimes real estate in broadcaster talk. Fuzzy marketing category, not an accounting term, and not an automatic “buy hard assets” rule on this site.
Learn more: Commodities and the dollar · Cash, stocks, and bonds
Soft assets
Loose headline slang for financial claims more tied to paper markets and duration—long bonds or growth equities in some talks—contrasted with “hard assets.” Recognize the phrase; do not treat it as a portfolio recipe.
Learn more: Commodities and the dollar · Cash, stocks, and bonds
Commodity supercycle
A storytelling label for a long phase of strong demand and elevated prices across many commodities. Useful only as media vocabulary. This site does not date supercycles, treat them as scientific laws, or recommend positioning for them.
Learn more: Commodities and the dollar · Inflation 101
Sources
BLS
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—publisher of CPI and the monthly employment situation report (including nonfarm payrolls), among other labor and price statistics. A primary source beginners should bookmark before relying on viral screenshots.
Learn more: Sources and habits · Inflation 101 · Jobs and growth
BEA
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis—publisher of GDP and PCE price indexes (among other national accounts). The Fed has long preferred PCE when describing its inflation goal.
Learn more: Sources and habits · Inflation 101 · Jobs and growth
Fiscal & cycle
Fiscal deficit
When government spending exceeds tax and other receipts over a period. A deficit is a flow (this year’s gap); government debt is the stock accumulated from past borrowing. Deficits show up in debates about demand, inflation, and bond supply—this glossary defines the term without campaigning for a party or budget plan.
Learn more: Fiscal policy basics
Business cycle
The familiar pattern of expansion, peak, contraction, and trough in economic activity. Useful as a learning map for how jobs, inflation, and policy debates fit together. This site does not date peaks, troughs, or recessions in real time.
Learn more: Business cycle · Jobs and growth
Expectations
Priced in
Everyday phrase meaning a possibility is already reflected in asset prices and investor stories. When an outcome is largely priced in, delivering it can produce a muted or even opposite short-term reaction; surprises vs expectations often move markets more than the raw level alone. Educational framing only—not a trade rule.
Learn more: Priced in / expectations · Event playbook
Telegram
For live FOMC / CPI / NFP decoding while you keep these definitions open: Macro Simplified on Telegram.